BHP Group, the world’s leading mining company, forecasts a global copper shortfall of 10 million metric tons by 2035. In response, the company has committed between $10.7 billion and $14.7 billion over the next decade to expand its copper production in Chile, including at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.
The investment strategy includes enhancing operations at Escondida, the smaller Spence mine, and reviving the Cerro Colorado mine. However, BHP anticipates its copper output will drop by 300,000 tons, down to 1.6 million tons annually by 2030, primarily due to declining ore grades at Escondida. Production challenges are expected to peak in 2025.
To mitigate these issues, BHP is investing in expanded processing facilities and deploying advanced leaching technologies to extract copper from lower-grade sulfide ores. Major expenditures are planned for fiscal years 2030 and 2031, with initial production from some projects projected between 2027 and 2028, and others between 2031 and 2032.
Copper demand is predicted to grow by 1 million tons annually until 2035, driven by its critical role in electric vehicle batteries and data center infrastructure. Meeting this demand could require $250 billion in new mining investments, according to BHP Americas President Brandon Craig.
Global copper production currently stands at 22.4 million tons, and other major producers face similar hurdles as aging mines challenge production increases. While BHP recently pursued a $49 billion bid for Anglo American, its focus remains on maximizing output at Escondida, Spence, and Cerro Colorado.
BHP is also collaborating with industry groups to urge the Chilean government to streamline permitting processes, which often exceed legal timelines and create operational uncertainty.
Despite current copper prices of approximately $8,995 per metric ton—down 20% from 2024’s peak—BHP ruled out any underground expansion of Escondida in the near term.
At Cerro Colorado, which faced water use challenges, the company is prioritizing leaching technologies using seawater over selling the asset.
By staggering investments and adopting innovative extraction techniques, BHP aims to tackle the copper supply gap while balancing market volatility and operational risks.
