In the face of tariffs, immigration curbs, reduced development funding and growing nationalism, conventional wisdom suggests Africa faces strong geopolitical headwinds. However, the apparent disorder may have a significant upside for the continent.

This emerged from a passionate debate on the main stage on Day 2 of Investing in African Mining Indaba, the largest mining event of its kind, currently being held in Cape Town.

The novel debate format saw two teams of mining opinion leaders offer competing views of the geopolitical situation. The light-hearted session highlighted many of the main issues facing the sector, subject to a “politician’s rule”, that neither side necessarily meant – or even believed – what they said during the session.

Despite the levity, there was clear consensus that Africa was powerfully placed to benefit from its rich critical-minerals endowment in the new resource era. The only point of disagreement was whether the continent would be able to seize those opportunities by achieving the effective governance and regional integration required.

“Is Africa a winner in the current geopolitical disruption?” was the question posed to the panel, in the debate moderated by Rohitesh Dhawan, President and CEO of International Council on Mining and Metals.

Power play

“Hope is not a strategy,” quipped Ronak Gopaldas, Signal Risk director and visiting fellow at the London School of Economics. “Africa has aspirations to be a winner, but in reality, the continent is more vulnerable than a certain CEO at a Coldplay concert!”

Gopaldas humorously pointed out that the world was re-entering an era of power politics, where influence, as well as economic and military might would be paramount. Continuing the musical theme, he said that these days, “Everybody wants to rule the world”, as the classic Eighties pop song would have it.

“In that environment, we Africans will be rule takers rather than rule makers,” he claimed. “We can’t just be ‘living on a prayer’. Without collective bargaining and regional solidarity, we’ll be going backwards.”

Taking a more positive stance for the sake of the event was Mpumi Zikalala, CEO of Kumba Iron Ore, who pointed to the undeniable reality that Africa had the resources that everybody wanted.

Youth dividend

 

“Africa has an endowment that everybody wants a piece of,” she said. “We have around 40% of the world’s proven critical-mineral reserves in the ground beneath our feet. You can’t argue with that. The world is beating a path to our door, and we just need to negotiate deals that work for us.”

Zikalala also highlighted Africa’s enormous youth dividend. Reminding the audience that the continent had the youngest population on the planet, and while the skills might not yet be there, it would be easy to train the youth to meet the continent’s development needs.

“Our young people will allow us to unlock the possibilities for the future,” said Zikalala. “There will be long-term demand for critical minerals. And young people can be trained to do deliver on that demand.

The third G: governance

Raining on Zikalala’s parade – with tongue firmly in cheek – was Gracelin Baskaran, critical minerals security director for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“All three G’s have to be in place,” she said. “It’s not just about the geopolitical conditions, or the geological endowment. You need to get governance right!”

She mentioned numerous African territories that had seen fewer global exploration projects due to issues like resource nationalism, double taxation and perceptions of instability.

Baskaran also pointed out the need for African countries to integrate for more efficient development.

“Everyone talks about local beneficiation,” she said. “But not every country can build a refinery. It makes more sense to build one refinery to serve a broader region. Policy alignment makes that possible – and Africa needs to work on that.”

The battle for minerals

Also on the optimists’ side was Techmet chairman and CEO Brian Menell who described the current geopolitical situation as similar to the Cold War, but with a minerals focus.

“The key front these days is the control of resources,” Menell noted. “The world needs more of what we’ve got – for energy transition, robotics, drones, autonomous driving… It also needs a young and resilient population, and we will therefore be winners.”

Menell struck a positive tone of inevitability, as the debate wound to a good-natured close.

“Fundamentally, it’s about investment and returns,” he said. “The US, Europe, Japan and other investors have committed to providing capital, derisking investments and transforming global supply chains. Without a shadow of a doubt, that assures Africa’s position as a winner.”

“Africa can be a winner,” conceded Baskaran, with a smile. “So long as we build policy coherence.”

 

Wrapping things up, Dhawan summed up the mood in the room, and at the Mining Indaba conference.

“We’ve spiced things up for entertainment value, but at the end of the day, even in times of geopolitical turmoil, there remain exciting opportunities for Africa,” he said.

 

 

• Investing in African Mining Indaba 2026 runs from February 9 – 12 at CITCC in Cape